CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-10T07:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-10T07:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30670/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Full asymmetric halo CME seen to the SW in all three coronagraphs. Source is a large eruption and several M-class flares from Active Region 13664, including a long-duration M4.9 flare associated with the post-eruptive arcades. Widely opening field lines and a rising loop of ejecta seen starting at 2024-05-13T08:10Z in SDO AIA 193/171. Ejecta and post-eruptive brightening and arcades seen at 08:43Z in SDO AIA 131/304. Post eruptive arcades at 11:15Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. Possible arrival signature (in review) characterized by Btotal increasing from 5nT 2024-05-11T08:55Z to 12nT at 08:58Z, an increase in solar wind speed from ~820 km/s at 08:55Z to 925 km/s, with an increase in temperature as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T08:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T08:50Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1018.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 1087.00 Acceleration: -2.80036 Duration in seconds: 178719.97 Duration in days: 2.0685182 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -2.80 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 586.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2024 Time: 08:50 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 36.52 hour(s)
Difference: 0.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-05-10T20:24Z
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